The SAML certificate configured in ServiceNow does not match the certificate used by the identity provider to sign assertions, or the certificate has expired. (high likelihood)
Clock synchronization issues between ServiceNow and the identity provider causing timestamp validation failures during signature verification. (high likelihood)
The identity provider configuration has changed its signing algorithm or certificate without updating the corresponding configuration in ServiceNow. (medium likelihood)
Incorrect audience or entity ID configuration in the identity provider that doesn't match the ServiceNow instance URL or specified audience value. (medium likelihood)
Network intermediaries or proxies are modifying the SAML response in transit, corrupting the signature validation process. (low likelihood)